The Humble Investor

I have spent the past two years writing a new book, The Humble Investor: How to Find a Winning Edge in a Surprising World. I'm delighted to announce that the book, which debuts in February, is now available for pre-order on Amazon.com and Barnes & Noble.  

The book ties together the last decade of Verdad's Weekly Research into a punchy and concise tour of everything I've learned about investing. All you love about this newsletter, from deep, original quantitative research to controversial and edgy critiques of mainstream thinking, finds full expression in this book.  

My fundamental thesis is the importance of humility: identify the things we can’t predict (virtually everything) and bet against those who are unaware of that limitation. Where others are misled by stale theories or overconfident forecasts, readers of this book will be prepared for the unexpected and come away with a game plan to gain an edge in a surprising world.

In other words, I believe that humility about our ability to predict the future, which is flawed, paired with a deep study of history, can offer a path to outperformance. In proving this theory, I bring to light fundamental truths in investing, some of which you may be surprised to learn and perhaps even reluctant to believe. After all, Wall Street’s sacred cows are sacred for a reason.

Scrutinizing the markets this way is ever more relevant today as the US continues its run of equity outperformance and as private equity garners roughly 40% of institutional investors’ portfolio allocations. It’s hard to argue against these investments, but this book provides a template for navigating both investment bubbles and the subsequent busts.  

If you've enjoyed reading our weekly research, I hope you'll consider buying the book from Amazon.com or Barnes & Noble—and maybe even buying a few extra copies for friends and family.  I'll share more about the book as we get closer to the publication date!